The Rate of Whale Strandings in New Jersey This Year Is Astronomical

8 dolphin washed ashore and died on a Sea Isle beach today.

Here’s the nut:

The scenes are, expectedly, horrific:

We won’t speculate about the exact cause of this particular stranding, but obviously it will fan the flames of skepticism about offshore drilling for windmills.

What’s Going On

According to a story from the Asbury Park Press, which has been chronicling the whale and dolphin strandings along the New Jersey and New York metro area coast, there have been 15 incidents involving whale or dolphin deaths since December 1, 2022:

• 1 Keansburg, NJ (Dec. 5, 2022): Infant sperm whale

• 2 Strathmere, Upper Township, Cape May County, NJ (Dec. 10, 2022): Female humpback

• 3 Atlantic City, near South Chelsea Avenue, NJ (Dec. 23, 2022): Female humpback

• 4 Atlantic City, near Florida Avenue, NJ (Jan. 7, 2023): Female humpback

• 5 Brigantine, NJ (Jan. 12, 2023): Female humpback

• 6 45 nautical miles off Brigantine, NJ (Jan. 18, 2023): Humpback

• 7 12 miles off Long Beach Island, NJ (Jan. 28, 2023): Humpback

• 8 Manasquan, Whiting Avenue Beach, NJ (Feb. 13, 2023): Female humpback

• 9 Seaside Park, near M Street, NJ (March 1, 2023): Female humpback

• 10 Long Beach Township, near Connecticut Avenue, NJ (Jan. 23, 2023): Common dolphin

• 11 Gateway National Recreation Area at Sandy Hook, NJ (Feb. 18, 2023): Three common dolphins

• 12 Avalon, Cape May County, NJ (Feb. 27, 2023): Bottlenose dolphin

• 13 Sea Isle City, NJ (March 21, 2023): Eight common dolphins

• 14 Lido Beach, NY (Jan. 30, 2023): Humpback

• 15 Rockaway Beach, NY (mid-February, 2023): Female minke

Before this - and generally before windmill work began in earnest off the coast - we were already in the middle of what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration terms an “unusual mortality event” (UME) of humpback whales along the entire US Atlantic coast since 2016.

The current number of whale and dolphin deaths in the NJ-NY area represents an uptick in even this unusually high rate.

The Data

Here’s what the data says.

The whale stranding event rate along the entire Atlantic coast since January, 2016, is roughly 2 per month.

The NOAA provides the following:

Nothing jumps out… until you realize that it’s only March. New Jersey already has 6 strandings this year. New York has 2. Virginia has 5.

The rate of whale strandings per month, by state, since 2016 - an already elevated period - has some curious outliers (with the help of ChatGPT):

And ranked, by month:

The current rate in New Jersey is more than 3x higher than any pre-2023 rate, and 10x higher than the state’s average per month rate since 2016 (.31).

It goes without saying we’re on pace for a record year of whale strandings along the Atlantic Coast.

What The Scientists Say About Windmills

Small-ish sample size, sure. But the data supports the observation here— there are more humpback whale strandings over the last few months than normal, by a wide margin.

Why?

It’s unclear. The NOAA has stopped well short of blaming this on windmill activity.

40% of the whales that they were able to test showed signs of ship strikes of some sort. The agency says it’s difficult to test all whales, especially once they begin decomposing. Funding is also an issue.

It’s unclear how many of the recent whales they have tested.

But it’s also important to note they haven’t ruled out a connection to windmill acitivity— they simply haven’t found one. And as scientists, they won’t opine without evidence.

Here’s what NOAA says:

In short, there is no direct evidence. Unless you count more whales dying in New Jersey and New York over the last few months than ever before.

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